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The Art of Estimation
One thing I've learnt during my ten years in IT is to always over estimate how long something will take. It's still something I get wrong, but, more often that not, it works out ok in the end.
Why then can I not seem to get my estimates right when it comes to DIY!? Why, oh why, do I always under estimate and end up with a hopelessly unrealistic idea of how long something will take?
With most DIY this isn't really a massive issue and it simply becomes an ongoing tasks. However, for a while now I've known we needed to rip out and replace the hall floor. This is one of those jobs you just have to get done ASAP once you've started. Without going in to exactly why I am doing it, let's just say a century of wear and movement has take its toll.
The hall is the thoroughfare to any house and the idea of not having a floor for any longer than a day or two is out of the question. So I booked a weekend of Dad's time and arranged for Karen, Quinn and Felix to stay elsewhere. When they returned on Sunday night there would be a new floor and everything would return back to normal. That was the idea anyway.
It's now Thursday and the hall looks like the photo above. Anybody coming in the front door is in for a shock!
Why I thought it would take two days I have no idea. Like most other jobs of this scale you never know what's involved until you get started. It turned out we need to rip out all the joists and create new beams for them to hang off.
The knock-on effect is that I've got nothing done in the office all week. Luckily the work I had scheduled for this week is for an understanding customer. When I told them it was because of DIY they replied to tell me I should forget DIY and GSI instead. Now I'm starting to see the benefits of this as I've the money I've saved by doing it myself is probably less than that lost in work I could have been doing upstairs. In the past I've always managed to coincide DIY with quiet times in the office. Now it's busy and I only have the weekends spare and there are jobs that just have to be done. Next time I'll have to plan it a little more carefully.
Anyway, in short, this was just a long-winded "sorry for the silence" post to explain my absence all week. Back to normal next week. Fingers crossed.
Comments
Roman Kopac (Thu 3 May 2007 08:31 AM) website / e-mail
Hofstadter's Law: It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law.
Jerry Carter (Thu 3 May 2007 09:03 AM) website / e-mail
You're either very brave or slightly insane. After considering your past triumphs and endeavors, I find myself no closer to narrowing that distinction. ;-)
Michael Duffy (Thu 3 May 2007 09:12 AM) website
That there looks like hard fecking work Jakey me lad. You should follow my lead adn get some professionals to do it
Mike (Thu 3 May 2007 09:20 AM) e-mail
As my uncle likes to say, "My toolbox is my checkbook."
Michael Duffy (Thu 3 May 2007 09:52 AM) website
and as MY uncle likes to say:
my toolbox is my lunchbox
Graham Tucker (Thu 3 May 2007 10:00 AM) website / e-mail
Nope my view is always best to get the family in to do a job like that, however it's also best to get them in when you are off out at work. Hmmmm yep that doesn't really help you Jake!!!
Peter LaComb (Thu 3 May 2007 10:21 AM) e-mail
Suddenly I'm reminded of not having a kitchen for nearly two months.
No sink, no stove. The refrigerator moved into the office, and take-out/deliver were the only way to dine.
But, replacing the vinyl floor with tile, new cabinets and counter-tops, new appliances, etc. was worth it.
John from Texas (Thu 3 May 2007 11:39 AM) e-mail
Jake,
I applaud your amibition and can-do attitude. I find that as a developer, the chance to do some "real work" with my hands is very relaxing and therapeutic. Of course the stress of a big project like your current one sometimes puts you in the need for more therapy. In the end, you'll like back on your finished project with great pride and satisfaction, so I think you've taken the right path. God speed as you strive for the finish line!
Dave Meehan (Thu 3 May 2007 05:33 PM) e-mail
Jake,
Glad to see your still hard at it. Just keep your fingers crossed you don't get broken into this week, or you may face a claim for not keeping your home safe for visitors!
Cheers
Dave
Dave W (Fri 4 May 2007 08:36 AM)
@Peter: 2 months? If only it'd been so easy for us!! :-) We had no kitchen for 6 months when we got someone in.
First day on the job he found damp behind the old kitchen cabinets and thereafter it cost me £25,000 for a new bathroom and kitchen.
Steve in Virgina (Fri 4 May 2007 11:08 AM)
As to your core question on estimating the time needed. You failed to factor in the unavoidable DIY rule.
Rule 1: Any items connected to or in close proximity to the item to be replaced must also be replaced.
Rule 2: While replacing secondary items refer to Rule 1.
Never Give Up!
Steve
Peter LaComb (Fri 4 May 2007 03:28 PM) e-mail
@Steve - So, DIY is an excerise in recursion. Great. Do you have any idea how many programmers DON'T GET recursion?
Jerry Carter (Mon 7 May 2007 08:24 AM) website / e-mail
If only DIY was as easy as...
@ReplaceSubFloor("existing";"oldbeams";"newbeams")
CoryB (Mon 7 May 2007 03:35 PM) e-mail
Peter,
The problem with the recursion exaple for DIY is that there is no end clause ;)
We just finished up some renovations. We hired someone to do the work though. We knew going in that things were not how they should be in our house yet somehow the professional kept getting surprised by what he found. Nothing major but just enough to make him have to think a little more about what he had to do.
Old FDM or Fdi Bloke (Tue 8 May 2007 04:28 AM)
That's so funny Jake, all I wanted to do this Bank Holiday was to change the toilet seat! Two minutes right - not! After much twisting, turning, oiling and unscrewing, I still have the old toilet seat – It now requires a hacksaw, as the butterfly nuts are rusted on solid; there’s no such thing as a quick job. I thought I’d strip back my garage door with a bit of Nitomors paint stripper, into two months and the odd weekend, I’ve now almost got a navy blue garage door, but it still needs a final rub down and another coat of Hammerite.
David (Tue 8 May 2007 04:46 AM) e-mail
@Old <snip> Bloke: I replaced a toilet seat for ma-in-law yesterday - also faced with rusted nuts. Then I realised that once the hinge housing was removed the bolt would pull through the hole - no other unfastening required. Hope yours is similar.
Anon 1 (Tue 8 May 2007 07:51 AM)
@Dave W
6 months without a kitchen? Luxury! When I was a lad we didnt even have a kitchen, just a hole in the ground with a soggy bit of cardboard covering half the roof!
Steve in Virgina (Tue 8 May 2007 02:17 PM)
@Pete - You said recursion and I thought Cartesian and just lost it.
So Jake, how is the floor coming along?
Jake Howlett (Tue 8 May 2007 06:52 PM)
Hi Steve. The floor is done/safe now and ready for the tiler to do his bit. Lesson learnt - don't look underneath old carpets...
Chris Hudson (Wed 16 May 2007 06:36 PM)
Or within bathroom walls ... its amazing what a tiny leak can do to a houses timbers given time.
PS... I jumped across to your Jake's House blog to get the details of this work and found you haven't updated that in quite a while. Is it in abeyance?
Jake Howlett (Thu 17 May 2007 04:18 AM)
@Chris Hudson. I don't know what abeyance is but it's definitely on another holiday. Running one blog is enough work. Running two is a real bind at times.
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